Tertimbang Bergerak Rata Rata Java

Pola, Set-up, Analisis Apa Rok Pendek Perdagangan SKIRT SHORT adalah perdagangan kulit kepala cepat yang dibuat sesuai tren jangka pendek. Penyiapan terjadi setelah SampP melakukan gerakan impuls tajam. Pola ini cenderung terlihat seperti bendera kelanjutan pada grafik 1 menit. Kami menyebutnya Rok Pendek karena biasanya perdagangan berlangsung antara 2 - 10 menit. Konsepnya adalah - cepat masuk dan cepat keluar tanpa tertangkap. Kami mencoba mencari setup Short Skirt yang memiliki potensi minimal tiga poin dalam perdagangan. STOP 3 titik awal ditempatkan dari harga masuk perdagangan. Tujuan untuk perdagangan adalah tes ulang ayunan sebelumnya yang tinggi atau rendah, meskipun pasar sering membuat kaki baru naik atau turun. Bagaimana Anda memasukkan Short Skirt Trades Kami melihat retracement harga 2 sampai 4 poin dari ayunan yang paling baru terbentuk tinggi atau rendah. Untuk mata yang tidak terlatih, mungkin berguna untuk melihat rata-rata pergerakan eksponensial 20 periode pada grafik 1 menit, meskipun harga tidak selalu menelusuri sejauh itu. Terkadang reaksi yang masuk ke samping bukan kembali ke EMA bisa menjadi trade terbaik. Retracement harga awal berlangsung sekitar 5 menit. Saat reaksi kembali mulai macet, biasanya kita masuk order pasar. Sangat ideal untuk memasuki perdagangan SEBELUM harga mulai bergerak kembali ke arah tren semula. Hal ini juga paling efisien untuk bekerja dengan tawaran atau tawaran karena harganya sudah benar kembali, namun terkadang jenis pesanan yang digunakan adalah masalah gaya pribadi. Karena harga sudah terkoreksi kembali 2-3 poin saat sebuah perdagangan masuk, jarang sekali stop stop 3 point pertama dipukul. Kami mengencangkan stop setelah perdagangan bergerak menguntungkan kami. Setelah perdagangan mulai bekerja, segera tarik stop Anda ke ayunan terakhir yang tinggi atau rendah jika pasar tidak melakukan uji ulang penuh kembali turun. Apa Bendera BullBear Pola ini diambil langsung dari charting klasik (Schabacker, Edwards amp Magee, dll.) Dan tahan uji waktu. Bendera merupakan pola kelanjutan di pasar yang sedang tren. Mereka ditemukan di semua kerangka waktu, semua pasar, dan menawarkan salah satu rasio penghargaan risiko yang lebih baik untuk pembuatan perdagangan. Pembentukan bendera harus didahului oleh sebuah tiang atau momentum awal bergerak ke arah tren. Konsolidasi berikutnya cenderung relatif dangkal. Pola kelanjutan jauh lebih pendek daripada pola pembalikan. Semakin lama sebuah bendera bergerak ke samping, semakin besar kemungkinan bahwa hal itu akan berubah menjadi pola pembalikan daripada mengarah ke kaki baru ke arah tren. Apa itu Perdagangan Grail Perdagangan Holy Grail awalnya dijelaskan di buku Smart Smart saya. Penyiapan terjadi ketika tren pasar telah cukup kuat sehingga menyebabkan ADX periode-14 naik di atas 30. Bila harga kemudian kembali ke EMA 20 periode, kemungkinannya lebih besar daripada tes ulang yang baru terbentuk tinggi atau rendah. Apa Anti Setup Anti terlihat seperti banteng kecil atau pola bendera beruang yang terjadi baik di tengah rentang perdagangan atau sesaat setelah pasar berbalik dari pergerakan tren yang berkelanjutan. Bendera klasik atau bendera beruang adalah pola kelanjutan yang hanya bisa terjadi di pasar yang memiliki tren yang terdefinisi dengan baik. Kadang-kadang Anti akan terlihat seperti retracement tengah pola A-B-C. Dengan demikian, kita bisa mendapatkan tujuan gerakan terukur yang didasarkan pada ayunan sebelumnya. Anti HARUS didahului dengan langkah IMPULSE jangka pendek. Beli Antis lebih sering terjadi daripada Sell Anti setup. Perdagangan panjang akan memiliki peluang sukses terbaik jika kaki sebelumnya lebih besar dari pada turun kaki sebelumnya. Pengenalan pola osilator berdasarkan osilator 310 atau kombinasi periode 7 K, kombinasi 16-periode D stochastics juga dapat digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi penyiapan ini. Apa Momentum Pinball Momentum Pinball awalnya diperkenalkan di buku Smarts Street sebagai penyiapan untuk menunjukkan Hari Beli atau Hari Jual Pendek ala George Douglas Taylor. Taylor tampak singkat setelah reli 1-2 hari, dan tutup dan pergi lama setelah 1-2 hari mengalami penurunan. Indikator pinball dihitung dengan menggunakan RSI 3-period dari perubahan bersih harian. Buku Smarts Street berisi deskripsi lengkap dan terperinci tentang perdagangan ini. (Momentum Pinball, Anti, Holy Grail, 8020 dan 9010 bar, dan sinyal ROC 2-period adalah beberapa konsep ASLI saya. Berulang kali saya perhatikan bahwa ada orang-orang di internet yang menawarkan buletin dan kursus berdasarkan salinan asli saya. - tuliskan materi yang dilindungi Harap dicatat bahwa saya tidak memiliki afiliasi atau asosiasi dengan entitas ini.) Apa itu Oops Trade Oops adalah sebuah ekspresi yang awalnya diciptakan oleh Larry Williams. Penyiapan terjadi saat celah harga pembukaan berada di luar kisaran hari sebelumnya. Stop beli (atau jual) ditempatkan tepat di dalam kisaran hari sebelumnya jika pasar kemudian menutup celah, mengindikasikan pembalikan. Perdagangan paling baik diperlakukan sebagai perdagangan kulit kepala dan keluar sebelum tutup. Pola ini tidak memiliki nilai peramalan jangka panjang. Apa indikator utama yang Anda gunakan pada grafik Anda Kami menggunakan indikator yang sama di semua pasar, semua kerangka waktu. Kami menggunakan EMA 20 periode (moving average eksponensial), osilator harga, dan ADX periode-14. Osilator yang kita gunakan adalah perbedaan antara rata-rata pergerakan sederhana 3 dan 10, dengan rata-rata pergerakan sederhana 16-periode dari 310. Kami juga menggunakan Saluran Keltner berdasarkan 2.5 ATR yang berpusat di sekitar EMA 20 periode. Perlu diingat bahwa indikator hanyalah sebuah penopang untuk memberi tahu Anda apa yang sudah ada di grafik batang. Banyak pedagang melakukan yang terbaik ketika mereka belajar membaca grafik batang tanpa menggunakan indikator, osilator, dll. Apa itu Mode Breakout Kami menggunakan strategi mode breakout saat pasar memiliki beberapa bentuk kisaran kontraksi. Hari tren, atau rentang ekspansi yang luas, sering mengikuti rentang rentang kontraksi, atau rentang rata-rata harian rata-rata. Saat kita dalam mode breakout, kita menggunakan strategi untuk masuk ke arah pasar yang sedang bergerak, daripada menunggu reaksi harga. Bagaimana Anda mengukur luas pasar, memberi rasio panggilan, dan volume Luas pasar dipantau dengan melihat jumlah masalah yang sedang maju dikurangi jumlah penurunan masalah di NYSE. Data PutCall disediakan oleh pertukaran individu. Kami melihat ekuitas hanya menempatkan rasio panggilan, selain indeks menempatkan rasio volume panggilan. Untuk data putcall yang diperbarui setiap setengah jam, Anda dapat menggunakan tautan ini ke Chicago Board Options Exchange: cboeMktDatadefault. asp Kami melihat volume di NYSE dan membandingkannya dengan pembacaan yang dilakukan pada waktu yang sama pada hari sebelumnya. Kerangka waktu apa yang Anda lihat? Analisis awal malam kami selalu dilakukan dari kerangka waktu harian dan mingguan. Selama hari perdagangan, kami menggunakan grafik 15, 30, 60 dan 120 menit. Untuk SP futures, chart 1 dan 5 menit juga sangat membantu. Paling sering, kita cenderung melihat harga terakhir. Seorang pedagang, yang bisa memantau level support dan resistance dasar dengan melihat aksi rekaman, seringkali akan selangkah lebih maju dari trader menggunakan chart bar. Hal ini juga lebih mudah untuk memantau beberapa pasar dan internal pasar secara bersamaan saat melihat papan kutipan, bukan grafik. Tentukan TICK, TIKI, TRIN, dan VIX. TICK: Ini adalah perubahan bersih dari semua saham NYSE pada kenaikan yang tidak semua saham NYSE mengalami downtick. Plus atau minus 1200 cenderung menjadi pembacaan yang ekstrem. Dalam lingkungan pasar yang sedang tren ekstrem di kutu dapat digunakan sebagai indikator momentum yang mengindikasikan pergerakan harga lebih lanjut untuk datang ke arah tren. Namun saat pasar dalam mode konsolidasi, setelah melakukan pergerakan besar, kutu akan menandai akhir ayunan jangka pendek naik turun. TIKI: Inilah perbedaan antara semua saham DOW dengan uptick dikurangi semua saham DOW pada downtick. Plus 24 atau minus 24 cenderung menjadi pembacaan yang ekstrem. TRIN: TRIN juga dikenal sebagai ARMS Index setelah penciptanya, Dick Arms. Hal ini dihitung sebagai berikut: (Isu Mendepan Isu Mendefinisikan) (Up VolumeDown Volume). Kami melihat arah TRIN bergerak untuk menunjukkan keseluruhan tren pasar. Misalnya, jika TRIN beralih dari 0,80 menjadi 1,00, ini mengindikasikan penjualan akan masuk ke pasar. VIX: Ini adalah Indeks Volatilitas yang didasarkan pada volatilitas tersirat pada uang OEX dan panggilan Sebagian besar umpan data real time mengirimkan indikator ini. Namun, umpan data berbeda mungkin menggunakan simbol yang berbeda. Jika Anda memiliki pertanyaan mengenai kode simbol, hubungi vendor data Anda secara langsung. Hari Z Day A Z adalah hari konsolidasi yang sering mengikuti trend hari. Periode pagi ditandai dengan pengujian bolak-balik dalam aksi harga. Kami menggunakan strategi perdagangan yang berbeda pada hari-hari ini daripada yang kita lakukan pada hari-hari lain. Salah satu perdagangan favorit kami adalah perdagangan bollinger band. Lihat bollinger band explaination di FAQ Apa itu hari NR7 NR7 adalah hari dimana rentang harian harian (harga tinggi hari ini dikurangi harga rendah) lebih sempit dari enam hari sebelumnya. Signifikansi dari pola ini adalah bahwa hal itu merupakan penurunan volatilitas harga yang ditandai. Rentang ekspansi dan kenaikan volatilitas harga cenderung mengikuti hari NR7. Hari NR4 mirip dengan hari NR7 kecuali bahwa itu merupakan hari di mana ragamnya lebih sempit dari tiga hari sebelumnya. Toby Crabel awalnya mempresentasikan konsep NR4, NR7, WR7, dll. Dalam bukunya Market Analytics Letter yang ditulis pada tahun 1980an. Kami memberi pujian kepadanya karena memulai penelitian di bidang ini. Artikel aslinya dimuat di majalah tersebut, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. Apa itu hari WR7 WR7 adalah hari di mana kisaran harian todays (todays high price minus harga rendah) lebih lebar dari kisaran 6 hari sebelumnya. Signifikansi dari pola ini adalah bahwa hal itu merupakan perluasan dari volatilitas harga. Pedagang sering membeli atau menjual tes WR7 hari tinggi atau rendah, keesokan harinya untuk perdagangan kulit kepala. Berapakah periode 2 periode ROC Periode 2-Rate-of-Change hari ini ditutup dikurangi dua hari yang lalu. Misalnya, untuk mendapatkan ROC 2-periode Fridays, Anda akan mengurangi hari Rabu dekat dari hari Jumat dekat. ROC 2 periode berguna untuk menyoroti siklus perdagangan dua sampai tiga hari seperti yang dijelaskan dalam Taylor Trading Technique. Momentum mentah adalah satu-satunya turunan dari harga yang kami temukan untuk menawarkan hasil statistik yang signifikan dalam penelitian kuantitatif kami. Hasil kami dengan indikator ini terbukti tahan lama dan kuat di semua pasar. Rentang Rata-Rata Rata-rata (ATR) Rata-rata True Range (ATR) diperkenalkan oleh Welles Wilder dalam bukunya, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. ATR adalah ukuran volatilitas, dan ini adalah komponen indikator ADX. ATR dihitung dengan menemukan nilai terbesar: 1. Jarak dari todays tinggi sampai todays rendah. 2. Jarak dari kemarin mendekati todays tinggi. 3. Jarak dari kemarin mendekati todays rendah. Perbedaan utama antara ATR dan range harian polos adalah bahwa ATR memperhitungkan kesenjangan akun. Apa perbedaan divergensi terjadi ketika indikator momentum atau instrumen lainnya gagal mengkonfirmasi langkah dalam aksi harga pasar dalam pengamatan. Misalnya, jika SP futures membuat harga rendah baru, namun osilator 310 gagal membuat momentum baru menjadi rendah, maka SP dikatakan berbeda dari osilator. Demikian juga, jika SP futures membuat level rendah baru yang tidak dikonfirmasi oleh level terendah baru di pasar atau indeks terkait (misalnya SP versus Dow Industrials, atau SP versus TICK), ini juga dianggap sebagai bentuk divergensi. Divergensi berguna karena mereka memperingatkan hilangnya momentum dan sering mendahului pembalikan harga. Apa itu Keltner Channels Keltner Channels adalah bentuk dari band perdagangan yang diplotkan langsung di atas grafik harga, berlawanan dengan grafik harga seperti pada kasus osilator atau volume. Band-band tersebut didasarkan pada fungsi ATR yang berpusat di sekitar rata-rata bergerak. Kami menggunakan nilai 2,5 ATR yang ditambahkan dan dikurangkan dari moving average eksponensial 20 periode untuk menciptakan band kami. Apa perbedaan antara Keltner Channels dan Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands berdasarkan fungsi standar deviasi. Sangat sering, Anda akan melihat saat di mana pasar bergerak TINGGI namun band Bollinger yang lebih rendah mengalami penurunan. Ini tidak terjadi pada saluran Keltner. Meskipun keduanya didasarkan pada fungsi volatilitas, Keltner Channels akan mempertahankan lebar yang lebih konstan daripada Bollinger Bands dan oleh karena itu kami merasa lebih enak dipandang mata. Kami juga memiliki kesuksesan yang jauh lebih baik dalam menggunakan fungsi jangkauan dalam pemodelan kuantitatif kami dibandingkan dengan fungsi standar deviasi, terutama saat menciptakan sistem waktu jangka pendek. Bollinger Band memperdagangkan kami menggunakan 2.5 band deviasi standar yang berpusat di sekitar rata-rata pergerakan 20 periode untuk melakukan perdagangan pada hari setelah hari tren. Kami melakukan perdagangan ini di sesi pagi saja. Konsep di balik ini adalah bahwa dorongan ke band atas atau bawah akan mengatur perdagangan countertrend. Tujuannya adalah mendorong kembali ke moving average. Tidak ada pemberhentian yang digunakan dalam pengujian kami, kami hanya menggunakan jalan keluar kapan pun perdagangan mencapai rata-rata pergerakan atau akhir hari dalam skenario yang lebih buruk. A-B-C adalah istilah yang dipinjam dari terminologi Elliot Wave yang menunjukkan pola koreksi tiga gelombang yang sering ditemukan di tengah tren. Gelombang A, B dan C seringkali sama besarnya dengan harga dan waktu, dan polanya cenderung memiliki tampilan zigzag. Berapakah parameter untuk osilator 310 Untuk membangun osilator ini, pertama kurangi rata-rata pergerakan sederhana 10 periode dari rata-rata pergerakan sederhana 3 periode. Kita sering menyebut ini sebagai jalur cepat. Selanjutnya, buat rata-rata bergerak sederhana selama 16 periode dari jalur cepat - kami mengacu pada baris ini sebagai garis lambat. Hal ini juga berguna untuk merencanakan garis horizontal pada nilai nol. Kami menyusun ketiga garis itu bersama-sama di grafik kami di bawah harga. Untuk beberapa indikator, seperti osilator 310, kami menyediakan file kode TradeStation yang dapat didownload oleh klien. Ketika kita mengacu pada EMA, kita akan selalu mengacu pada moving average eksponensial 20-periode. Baris ini dapat dianggap sebagai proxy untuk regresi ke mean di pasar yang sedang tren. Ini memiliki nilai kecil di pasar perdagangan. Tidak seperti rata-rata bergerak sederhana, yang mengambil harga rata-rata dari periode X terakhir, metode EMA mengambil rata-rata tertimbang dari harga terbaru dan harga rata-rata dari bar sebelumnya. Apa ukuran berhenti yang Anda gunakan Secara umum, kami menggunakan pemberhentian awal 5 poin di SP futures kecuali ditentukan lain. Untuk perdagangan kulit kepala di SPs, kita menggunakan stop point 3 titik. Di pasar berjangka domestik, kita menggunakan fixed 500 perhentian per kontrak kecuali ditentukan lain. Jika terjadi ekspansi volatilitas yang tidak biasa, kita akan menggunakan pemberhentian yang lebih luas dan menurunkan leverage kita. Berhenti harus diperketat saat pasar bergerak sesuai keinginan Anda. Di saham, sebaiknya gunakan pemberhentian untuk membatasi kerugian tidak lebih dari 2 modal kerja Anda. Bagaimana Anda memasukkan posisi Dalam menentukan apakah akan menggunakan pasar, membatasi atau menghentikan stop order untuk menarik kita ke dalam perdagangan, kita menilai kondisi likuiditas dan jenis lingkungan pasar (yaitu tren, berombak, dll.) Setiap pedagang pada akhirnya harus menemukan Gaya SENDIRI yang paling sesuai untuk mereka. Apakah Anda telah menghentikan stop order di pasar Sebagian besar waktu kita menyimpan stop order kita beristirahat di pasar. Pengecualiannya cenderung terjadi saat pembukaan celah diharapkan, dalam hal ini kita membiarkan pasar menetap terlebih dahulu, dan kemudian menempatkan tempat pemberhentian kita tepat di luar jangkauan pagi hari. Pengecualian lainnya adalah ketika kondisi likuiditas saat ini buruk dan kita memiliki posisi yang besar. Ini terjadi di pasar tertentu seperti kopi, di mana lebih baik membiarkan broker mengerjakan perintah keluar dalam jendela waktu tetap. Bagaimana Anda menempatkan pesanan Anda di SP futures Kami memanggil sebagian besar pesanan langsung ke pit berjangka. Namun, selama beberapa tahun terakhir kami telah menggunakan e-minis dengan masuknya pesanan elektronik juga, terutama karena likuiditas telah bergeser ke pasar ini. Apa maksud Anda saat Anda mengacu pada premi Premi nilai wajar adalah harga futures teoritis dikurangi harga indeks kas. Nilai wajar menggambarkan sejauh mana kontrak berjangka harus diperdagangkan di atas atau di bawah indeks tunai mengingat pendapatan dividen yang diharapkan untuk saham dalam indeks, jumlah hari sampai kadaluwarsa untuk kontrak berjangka dan tingkat suku bunga jangka pendek. Ketika SPs melakukan trading dengan harga premium atau diskon, kami mengacu pada situasi di mana futures diperdagangkan di atas atau di bawah nilai wajarnya. Berapakah rasio volatilitas historis Ini adalah rasio antara dua perbedaan volatilitas historis yang berbeda (misalnya, rasio antara volatilitas historis 25 hari dan 100 hari). Kami menggunakan indikator ini untuk mengingatkan kita pada saat volatilitas jangka pendek turun di bawah volatilitas jangka panjang dengan ambang persentase tertentu. Sinyal ini sering merupakan prekursor untuk meningkatkan volatilitas. Apa itu BOBO - pada lembar perdagangan Anda Ini adalah parameter untuk sistem pelarian volatilitas eksklusif yang kita tukar selama periode tertentu. Pembelian dipicu pada break di atas angka atas dan short dipicu pada break di bawah lower number. Apa Golf System Golf adalah sistem kepemilikan yang memasuki SP futures di CLOSE. LBRGroup menerbitkan sistem ini dalam layanan konsultasi antara tahun 1993 dan 1998. Kami juga menukarkannya secara mekanis untuk program berjangka terkelola kami. Kami menghentikan perdagangannya secara mekanis saat volatilitas overnight menjadi terlalu besar selama krisis Asia, meskipun kami masih menggunakannya sebagai indikator waktu. Hal ini didasarkan sebagian pada pola ROC dan diagram batang 2 periode. Apa itu perdagangan 2 poin sore. Pertandingan 2 poin bukanlah pola bagan. Ini adalah sesuatu yang mulai kita lakukan secara real time pada bulan Oktober 2004. Ini juga bukan sistem mekanis, karena tidak ada perhentian tetap lain saat berhenti. Waktu berhenti adalah 24 jam. Ini adalah kecenderungan berdasarkan pengenalan pola (jumlah hari naik atau turun seiring dan tingkat trennya). Ini adalah sesuatu yang mulai kita lakukan untuk diri kita semula, dan anggota lainnya mulai menggunakannya juga. Perdagangan dimulai pada pembukaan kembali kontak Emini setelah pasar tutup (yaitu awal sesi Globex). Sangat sering tujuan 2 titik terpukul dalam sesi Globex, oleh karena itu kami tidak mengerjakan perdagangan ini untuk ruangan ini, tapi hanya memasukkan apa yang mereka inginkan untuk pengetahuan Anda sendiri. Ada kalanya tujuan 2 point tidak tercapai sampai sesi hari keesokan harinya. Tentu akan ada saat dimana tujuannya tidak tercapai sama sekali, juga. Apa itu perdagangan RAT Perdagangan Tikus adalah perdagangan pelarian sore yang kita buat di SPs pada hari-hari dimana ada aktivitas institusional yang berat. Hal ini tidak didasarkan pada formasi grafik tertentu, dan parameter dan filter untuk perdagangan ini bersifat eksklusif. Apa itu perdagangan Call Terakhir Ini adalah perdagangan yang dilakukan pada jam terakhir dalam indeks berjangka. Hal ini mirip dengan Dorong ke dalam kerangka waktu Jam Siang yang kita buat di pagi hari. (Anggota dapat referensi ini di Setup Perpustakaan Perdagangan). Pengaturan Panggilan Terakhir didasarkan pada kombinasi pengenalan pola bar chart dan parameter luas pasar. Apa itu Pivot Point Ini bisa menjadi ayunan sebelumnya yang tinggi atau rendah, atau terlihat seperti titik jenjang tinggi atau rendahnya area gap. Globex tertinggi dan terendah, seiring dengan hari-hari sebelumnya yang tinggi dan rendah adalah semua bentuk Pivot Points. Kami tidak menggunakan angka Fibonacci atau perhitungan sewenang-wenang. Kami tertarik pada tingkat yang diketahui oleh semua pelaku pasar, seperti yang terjadi pada kunci tinggi atau rendah. Apa pola Red Green Red pada grafik batang yang Anda poskan Aturan warna ini didasarkan pada fungsi rentang rata-rata yang sebenarnya ditambahkan atau dikurangi dari ayunan sebelumnya yang tinggi atau rendah. Ini adalah variasi dari parabola stop and reverse formula yang diterbitkan oleh Welles Wilder dalam bukunya, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Kami menemukan bahwa ini memberikan pengenalan pola yang berguna dalam menyoroti ayunan jangka pendek pada diagram batang. General Trading Pertanyaan Terkait Tick Charts vs. Time Interval pada kebanyakan aplikasi perangkat lunak grafik tick 1600 dari sps akan setara dengan grafik 5 menit. Dan grafik tick 3600 sama dengan jangka waktu 15 menit. Kami lebih suka menggunakan jenis tick chart ini di sesi pagi karena mereka menyesuaikan perdagangan globex relatif terhadap tingkat aktivitas. Grafik sesi satu hari pada interval 5 menit bisa terlalu gappy, sedangkan grafik 5 menit secara 24 jam cenderung terdistorsi. Apa kekuatan relatif dan kelemahan relatif yang kita bicarakan di kamar perdagangan online Sederhananya, saham atau sektor yang menunjukkan kekuatan relatif berkinerja lebih baik daripada indeks terkait, seperti SP500 atau Nasdaq. Kelemahan relatif akan menjadi sektor atau saham yang kurang mampu melakukan benchmark index. Dengan komoditas, pemimpin kekuatan relatif adalah yang berkinerja terbaik pada hari itu. Pemimpin kekuatan relatif pagi biasanya terus melakukan yang terbaik sepanjang hari. Apa itu SPY amp QQQ SPY dan QQQ adalah Exchange Traded Funds. Mereka mewakili sekeranjang saham meniru komposisi indeks saham SampP 500 dan Nasdaq100. Mereka bertransaksi di bursa seperti saham individual dan bisa dijual dengan harga turun. Intinya, mereka mengijinkan anda untuk menukar seluruh stock index seperti SP atau Nasdaq futures. Namun, tidak seperti kontrak futures, QQQ dan SPY tidak kedaluwarsa dan bukan instrumen leveraged. Bagaimana Anda melihat begitu banyak pasar Mayoritas waktu, kita melihat papan kutipan yang memberi kita harga terakhir daripada menonton grafik di setiap pasar individual. Dengan cara ini kita dapat memantau berbagai tingkat harga di samping berbagai indeks pasar dan internal pasar. Jika kita ingin melihat grafik pada pasar tertentu, kita menarik sebuah layar yang memiliki kerangka waktu 30, 60 dan 120 menit. SPs dan kadang-kadang obligasi biasanya merupakan satu-satunya pasar di mana kita akan melihat grafik pada kerangka waktu yang lebih pendek. Posisi di sebagian besar pasar lain masuk dengan tujuan membawa posisi menang sepanjang malam. Mengapa Anda melihat begitu banyak saham Saham yang merupakan pemimpin pasar sering bisa berbalik sebelum indeks saham berjangka dilakukan. Hal ini terutama terjadi pada momentum beta beta yang tinggi. Memantau masing-masing sektor dan kekuatan relatif dapat menambahkan informasi berharga mengenai keseluruhan kondisi teknis pasar. Kami membatasi database kami hanya pada 250 saham trading teratas. Broker macam apa yang harus saya gunakan Hindari pialang dengan sistem entri pesanan berbasis browser. Gunakan broker yang menawarkan platform trading terintegrasi (stand alone software) dengan point and click order routing dan eksekusi. Anda harus melakukan penelitian Anda sendiri dalam menentukan perusahaan mana yang akan melakukan bisnis dengannya. Jika Anda tidak senang dengan broker Anda saat ini, sangat mudah untuk mencoba yang lain. Kami mengelola rekening di banyak perusahaan dan merasa penting untuk memiliki banyak hubungan jika ada masalah dengan satu perusahaan atau gangguan geografis di satu bagian negara. Apa data feed dan program perangkat lunak yang Anda gunakan pada umpan Data Real Time: Bagaimana saya bisa melihat apa yang terjadi setiap hari di kamar perdagangan online Untuk LBR Futures Live dan LBR Stock Beat, kami mengirimkan transkrip setiap hari aktivitas di situs kami. Transkrip ini tersedia di bagian Layanan Anggota di situs kami. Untuk LBR Currencies kita tidak mengarsipkan transkrip. Namun ruang Currencies kita akan buka 48 jam, memberi anggota kemampuan untuk dengan mudah mereferensi informasi hari sebelumnya. Saya ingin bergabung dengan layanan anda. Apa yang harus saya ketahui tentang pasar saham Meskipun pengetahuan dan pengalaman sebelumnya tidak benar-benar dibutuhkan, penting bagi Anda untuk memahami bahwa perdagangan melibatkan risiko. Layanan online trading kami bersifat mendidik dan akan bernilai terbaik bagi Anda jika Anda dapat memantau pasar secara real time. Saya masih punya pekerjaan lain. Bisakah saya berdagang paruh waktu ya? Anda memutuskan langkah pembelajaran Anda. Anda mungkin akan memulai paruh waktu dan memutuskan nanti apakah ini bisa menjadi awal karir baru untuk Anda. Ingatlah bahwa waktu dan energi yang Anda masukkan ke dalam pembelajaran akan terbayar di jalan. Namun, kami belum menemukan pedagang yang bisa secara konsisten mendukung diri mereka sendiri dengan melakukan perdagangan paruh waktu. Akhirnya perdagangan adalah pekerjaan penuh waktu, dan banyak orang yang baru mengenal bisnis sering kali terkejut dengan banyaknya trader profesional yang mengabdikan diri untuk mempelajari pasar mereka. Berapa banyak perdagangan yang kita lakukan setiap hari Tidak ada hari normal, dan jumlah perdagangan bervariasi dengan volatilitas kontrak saham dan futures yang kita trading. Namun, kami merasa lebih baik bersabar dan menunggu beberapa dipikirkan dengan baik kemungkinan pembuatan perdagangan probabilitas tinggi, daripada menyelesaikan perdagangan marjinal. Kami menemukan bahwa ketika para pedagang mulai melakukan overtrading, mereka menjadi ceroboh dan membuat kesalahan. Saya tidak bisa berada di dekat komputer sepanjang hari - apakah Anda mempunyai saran lain untuk saya Keanggotaan Online Dasar kami menawarkan set-up dan ide perdagangan yang dapat diterapkan tanpa perlu menonton layar di siang hari. Perdagangan ini termasuk opsi bermain dan perdagangan ayunan saham jangka panjang. Berapa lama waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk belajar berdagang dengan sukses Dalam pengalaman kami, rata-rata lama waktu yang dibutuhkan seseorang untuk dapat berdagang dengan konsistensi dan kepercayaan diri yang diperlukan untuk menghasilkan kehidupan yang layak adalah sekitar tiga tahun. Beberapa orang tidak pernah bisa melakukan ini, karena mereka tidak dapat menguasai sisi mental permainan. Beberapa orang telah dapat menemukan ceruk mereka dengan cepat dan menunjukkan profitabilitas yang konsisten setelah hanya 6 bulan. Ini adalah pengecualian sekalipun. Apa hal yang paling penting yang harus dilakukan oleh seorang trader hari Apa metode yang tersedia untuk mengakses chat room Kami menawarkan kepada semua anggota dua metode untuk mengakses obrolan langsung kami: 1. Metode perangkat lunak yang berdiri sendiri 2. Metode berbasis browser Kedua metode tersebut menawarkan hal yang sama. Kecepatan konektivitas dan memberikan informasi yang sama. Kami menemukan bahwa kebanyakan orang lebih memilih metode perangkat lunak yang berdiri sendiri untuk fitur-fiturnya, seperti mode tampilan jendela multi-mode. Setelah Anda login (klik tombol Futures Live, Stock Beat atau Currencies yang terletak di sisi kiri atas halaman rumah kami), Anda akan sampai pada halaman dengan informasi lengkap untuk mengakses kedua metode, termasuk petunjuk untuk mendownload perangkat lunak obrolan kami yang berdiri sendiri. Catatan: sistem live chat kita tidak akan mengizinkan menjalankan kedua metode secara simultan. Anda juga tidak bisa menjalankan sistem obrolan kami di dua komputer terpisah, secara bersamaan. Apa fitur video itu semua, dan bagaimana cara mengaksesnya Begining pada bulan Juni 2006, kami mengupgrade perangkat lunak chat kami yang berdiri sendiri untuk memasukkan umpan video langsung ke komputer Lindas. Semua anggota Futures Live dan Stock Beat akan memiliki akses ke fitur ini tanpa biaya tambahan. Fitur ini memungkinkan Anda melihat diagram dan indikator aktual yang Linda dan stafnya gunakan saat mereka mengatur perdagangan dan melakukan panggilan di chat room. Untuk informasi tentang fitur ini, klik di sini. Apakah saya memerlukan versi terbaru dari perangkat lunak obrolan Anda untuk mengakses fitur video Di mana saya mendownload versi terbaru dari perangkat lunak obrolan Anda Versi terbaru tersedia dengan mengklik tombol Futures Live atau Stock Beat yang terletak di sisi kiri atas kami. Halaman rumah Setelah memasukkan username dan password anda, anda akan diberi kesempatan mendownload file program. Dapatkah Anda menunjukkan kepada saya secara lebih rinci bagaimana masuk ke sistem obrolan berbasis browser Untuk petunjuk lengkap, klik di sini. Bagaimana cara mendapatkan link web (alias hyperlink) untuk bekerja di jendela obrolan saya klik pada mereka, tapi tidak ada yang terjadi. Saat Anda meletakkan mouse di atas tautan di chat room, tautan tidak akan mengubah tampilannya seperti biasanya Anda lihat di laman web standar. Jangan khawatir, ini normal. Anda perlu menempatkan mouse Anda langsung di atas link, dan kemudian klik dua kali. Browser Internet Explorer Anda kemudian harus terbuka. JUGA - link harus semua pada satu baris di jendela obrolan. Jika link dipecah menjadi dua baris, maka cukup ukuran ulang jendela Anda agar tautan kembali ke satu baris teks. Saya tidak bisa mendapatkan software obrolan untuk bekerja. Jika Anda menggunakan perangkat pemblokir pop-up atau firewall di komputer Anda, ini mungkin akan berdampak buruk dan bahkan mungkin mencegah agar perangkat lunak obrolan tidak berfungsi. Periksa untuk memastikan Anda menginstal Java Runtime Environment (JRE) terbaru. Versi terbaru bisa ditemukan disini. Perhatikan persyaratan minimum sistem kami: - Sambungan Internet Kecepatan Tinggi (modem DSL atau Kabel) yang disarankan - Win98, NT, 2000, XP - Browser Internet berbasis Java (mungkin memerlukan Microsoft Java Virtual Machine untuk diperbarui atau diinstal atau Java Environment Ming Runtime : Java. sungetjava) CATATAN untuk Administrator Sistem: Aplikasi live chat kami dirancang untuk menggunakan koneksi Internet langsung. Jika Anda menggunakan NAT dan sebuah sistem firewall, Anda harus mengizinkan koneksi keluar ke port 8523 dari server kami (lbrgroup). Pemetaan port juga bisa digunakan di gateway Internet Anda. Ruang Open Forum apa yang digunakan untuk ruang Open Forum adalah kamar khusus hanya untuk anggota untuk berbicara di antara mereka sendiri. Kamar ini akan memiliki bidang teks kosong di bawah jendela, di mana Anda dapat memasukkan komentar Anda. Setelah mengetik, untuk mengirim komentar ke ruangan, cukup tekan tombol Return atau Enter pada keyboard Anda. Bagaimana cara mengirim pesan pribadi Anda dapat mengirim pesan pribadi ke anggota lain dan juga moderator ruang. Cukup letakkan mouse Anda di atas nama orang yang ingin Anda kirimi pesan, dan klik kanan. Kemudian pilih Private Session. Ini akan membuka jendela baru bagi Anda untuk mengirim dan menerima pesan pribadi Anda. Setelah mengetik pesan Anda di kolom teks yang terletak di bagian bawah jendela obrolan, tekan tombol kembali keyboard Anda untuk mengirim pesan. Perhatikan bahwa daftar nama anggota dan nama moderator hanya akan muncul di ruang Forum Terbuka, di sisi kanan. Bagaimana cara menyesuaikan ukuran font Baik yang berdiri sendiri maupun metode obrolan berbasis browser memungkinkan Anda menyesuaikan ukuran font Anda. Cukup letakkan mouse Anda di atas area teks di dalam jendela transkrip, lalu klik kanan mouse Anda. Anda kemudian dapat memilih ukuran font khusus dari daftar. Apa penyesuaian yang dikendalikan pengguna lain yang dapat saya lakukan pada perangkat lunak yang berdiri sendiri Dalam perangkat lunak yang berdiri sendiri, letakkan mouse Anda di atas ikon biru kecil yang terletak di sudut kiri atas jendela obrolan. Selanjutnya, pilih salah satu dari kontrol berikut: - Multi Window mode. Perubahan dari single window mode ke multi-window mode. - Selalu di atas . Membuat perangkat lunak tidak dikaburkan oleh aplikasi perangkat lunak lain yang berjalan di komputer Anda. - Putar Suara Nyalakan dan matikan semua suara audio ruangan. - Mainkan EMA. Nyalakan dan matikan suara pengetikan halus saat pesan disiarkan ke ruang utama. Bagaimana cara mengaktifkan fungsi copy, cut and paste di aplikasi chat Ini memerlukan pengaturan keamanan pada browser web Anda (Internet Explorer). Silakan klik di sini untuk mengakses file PDF dengan petunjuk terperinci untuk mengubah pengaturan ini. File memerlukan Adobe Acrobat viewer. General Website Questions How can I cancel or change my service In the Member Services area of our web page, you will find links to Modify my Profile . How do I ask questions Sending us an email is the easiest way. Please see the Contact Us area of our web site. How do I print text found on your web site pages To print the class transcripts, guest lectures or other text items (without also printing all the formatted headers and other content on the page) heres what you do: 1. Simply select the text with your mouse (i. e. highlight the area you want to print). 2. Right click your mouse and select copy. 3. Open up Microsoft Notepad (look under Start--gtPrograms--gtAccessories--gtNotepad) and then simply paste in the text (right click mouse and select paste). 4. Voila -- you are ready to print the text (make sure youre printer is turned on) 5. For charts simply place your mouse on top of the chart - then right click - and save as to your hard-drive. Go to the saved file, click on the file to open it, and proceed to print. How do I print Charts 1. Right click your mouse on top of the chart you want to save, and select Save Picture As. 2. Save the chart image file to your harddrive. 3. Open chart image file by double clicking on file, then select Print from the Edit menu of you software. Why do charts print with such a dark background color Virtually all charts on this site are created with Aspen Graphics software. We realize that they do not print well with a dark background. We apologize for the inconvenience. The trade off is that we are able to manipulate the color rules and write our own formulas to show you unique and useful trading patterns. Why does it say no gaps on some of your charts in the Daily Educational Charts These charts are generated by Aspen Graphics. No gaps means that the data is compressed to eliminate holidays where the markets are closed. If this function is not turned on, a gap will appear in the data for the holiday session. ADX . Trend strength oscillator originally developed J. Welles Wilder Jr. that fluctuates between 0 and 100. BEAMER . Nickname for IBM BEAR FLAG . Classic bar chart pattern that occurs in a trending market, a bearish continuation pattern. BEAR TRAP . A bear trap occurs when the market breaks below chart support, bringing traders in on the short side, then quickly reverses, trapping traders with losses. BREADTH . The difference between the number of advancing issues and the number of declining issues on the NYSE. BREAKOUT TRADE . A trade that occurs when the market breaks above or below some pre-define range, usually a nearby support or resistance levels such as the previous days high or low, or the last 60 minutes highlow. Breakouts are often associated with low volatility readings. BULL FLAG . Classic bar chart pattern that occurs in a trending market, a bullish continuation pattern. BULL TRAP . A bull trap occurs when the market breaks above chart resistance, bringing traders in on the long side, then quickly reverses, trapping traders with losses. BURNING DOG . This is the phrase used to describe the tendency for the SPs to retrace back into a gap area by N - amount after a gap of N-amount. Though we make trades off this pattern in the futures room in the morning after a gap on certain days, this phrase describes a tendency only, and is not a mechanical trade setup. COMPRESSION METER . LBRGroups proprietary volatility index used to signal potential for longer term breakouts. COWS . Nickname for the Live Cattle futures CREEPER MARKET . A market that slowly creeps higher without a significant retracement. One of the strongest types of trending action that does not catch peoples attention. DISCOUNT (SPs) . When the price of the future is trading lower than fair Value DIVERGENCE . A divergence is indicated when momentum fails to confirm a new low or new high in the price. Divergences usually show up best with oscillators such as the 310 and 535 MACD. EDGE . Term used to describe when a trader has the advantage or a favorable margin. It is even better when this margin can be quantified statistically. EMA . Moving Average eksponensial. We use a 20-period setting EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL . The point at which buyers and sellers are in balance. Coincides with a neutral chart point that is often at the end of a consolidation period. EVENT RISK . The risk that some unexpected event will cause a substantial change in the market value of a security. For example, missed earnings, lawsuits, crop failures, war, etc. FADE . A countertrend trade FAIR VALUE . Fair value reflects the relationship between stock index futures and the indexs current levels. It is a theoretical estimate of where the futures should be trading based on their underlying cash index with short-term interest rates and dividends factored into the calculation. Determining the fair value relationship between the SampP 500 futures contract and the underlying SampP 500 index requires adding the cost of borrowing the money to buy the SampP 500 stocks, while subtracting the gain these stocks pay in dividends. FILL OR KILL . This means do it now if the stock is available in the crowd or from the specialist, otherwise kill the order altogether. GOLF . A mechanical trade that is made in the SP futures that is entered on the close of the day. GRAIL . A trade set-up based on a pullback to the 20 period EMA after the 14 period ADX has risen above 30. Pullback in rallies are bought, and pullbacks in declines are sold short. This pattern was discussed at lenght in Street Smarts. IMPULSE . Increase in the market momentum. Impulse moves tend to happen in the direction of the trend. On a bar chart they have the appearance of a sharp markup or markdown. INSTITUTIONS . Mutual funds, pension funds, banks, and large commercials KELTNER CHANNELS . A trading band indicator that is displayed on top of price charts. Similar to Bollinger Bands but calculated differently, using true-range rather than standard deviation. LAST CALL . Trade that setups up in the last hour of a trend day LOAD THE BOAT . Use full line of leverage MACD . An oscillator based on the difference between two moving averages. We use the difference between a 3 and 10-period simple moving average MARK UP . A Wyckoff term, used to denote the phase of the market where prices rise, from the beginning of a bull market to its top. MARKET LEADERSHIP . Market leadership refers to those sectors and industries that are currently bringing in the best returns. MARKET ORDER . An order to buy or sell a stock immediately at the best available current price. A market order guarantees execution. MIT . Market-if-touched order. An order which becomes a market order if the specified price is reached. MOC . Market-on-close order. A buy or sell order which is to be executed as a market order as close as possible to the end of the day. MOMENTUM . The difference between the last price and the price N-numbers bar. A 2-period Rate of Change (ROC) is the same as a 2-period Momentum. NAZDOG . Nickname for the Nasdaq100 index. NAZDOGGIE . Name of Linda8217s adorable little Pomeranian. See photo gallery . NR7 . The narrowest high-low range of the past seven days. OODA . The OODA Loop, often called Boyd8217s Cycle, is a creation of Col. John Boyd, USAF (Ret.). Col. Boyd was a student of tactical operations and observed a similarity in many battles and campaigns. He noted that in many of the engagements, one side presented the other with a series of unexpected and threatening situations with which they had not been able to keep pace. The slower side was eventually defeated. What Col. Boyd observed was the fact that conflicts are time competitive. According to Boyd8217s theory, conflict can be seen as a series of time-competitive, Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) cycles. OOPS TRADE . A term originally coined by Larry Williams which refers to a market that gaps below the previous days low (or above the previous days high) and then quickly reverses its direction. OOZE . Down trending price action that slowly inches down without any upward reactions of any magnitude. One of the strongest forms of trending action. OPENING BULGE . Period after the opening when the public has a tendency to pay too high a price. OPENING PLAY . The markets first tendency of the day OUCH SETUPS . When a market Closes in the upper 75 of its range but then gaps lower the next day around the previous days low (vice versa to the upside). OVERHEAD SUPPLY . Are where the market had found support in the past but the price is currently trading lower. PEA SHOOTER DAY . Our SP brokers affectionate term for when the institutions are absent and the majority of the paper in the SP pit consists of 1s and 2s. PIVOT . A market reference point. Our most frequently used pivots are swing highs and swing lows such as the high and low of a daily bar or the highs and lows of the hourly cycles. POWER BUYSELL . A retracement formation that combines two time frames. For a chart example of this setup, members can reference the trade library setup. PREMIUM (SPs) . When the price of an index future is trading greater than Fair Value. PUSH INTO THE NOON HOUR TIMEFRAME . Trade that setup around 11:00 EST on a trend day RAT TRADE . An afternoon breakout trade that is made in the LBRFutures Room RESISTANCE . Area where Sellers have come in the past. ROBUST . Refers to a method or system that is profitable across a variety of markets, time frames and parameters. It is the opposite curve-fit or optimized. SCALP . A Short-term trade that capitalizes on the markets smaller fluctuations. SHAKEOUT FAKEOUT . A sharp downward move following an area of distribution that quickly reverses itself and comes back up through the distribution area. SHORT SKIRT . The name of a very short term pattern trade taken on a one-minute SampP and Nasdaq futures charts. A form of pullback trade on a very short time frame. SKIDS . Slippage or the difference between the price that a stop order was placed and the actual fill price. SLOP AND CHOP . Action in the market when institutions are absent and liquidity is poor. SMA . Simple Moving Average SPRING . Originally a Wyckoff term, is used to denote an impulsive move often associated with a test of support. See also Upthrust. STOP ORDER . An order that becomes a market order when the price touches that level. SUMTICK . LBRGroups proprietary summation Tick index SUPPORT . Area where buyers have stepped in the past. SWEET STUFF . Nickname for the sugar futures THREE PUSHES . A characteristic pattern that occurs near important turning points. Usually three distinct test of a high or low level, followed by a reversal. 3 OCLOCK JIGGLE . A scalp trade that sets up in the SPs around the time that the bonds close. TICK . Smallest increment that a price can change. 1 tick on an e-mini contract .25 points, which is the equivalent of 12.50. TICKS . The difference between the number of issues on the NYSE that are trading UP from the last trade versus the number of issues that are trading down. TREND DAY . A day where the market opens on one end of its range, closes on the opposite end, shows range expansion and has an increase in volume. TRIGGER . Level at which a trade will be initiated if a market trades to that price. TRIN . The TRIN (also know as the Trading Index and the ARMS Index) was invented by Richard Arms in the 1970s. It is calculated as follows: (Advancing issues Declining issues) divided by (Advancing volume Declining volume). If the index is above one, the average volume of stocks that fell on the NYSE was greater than the average volume of stocks that rose. If the index is below one, then the converse is true. UPTHRUST . Originally a Wyckoff term, is used to denote an impulsive move often associated with a test of resistance. See also Spring. VIX . VIX is a weighted measure of the implied volatility for 8 OEX put and call options. VIX represents the implied volatility for this hypothetical at-the-money OEX option. VOLATILITY . The range of the price action over N - Number of bars. WEDGE . A low volatility point in which a triangle type formation can be drawn on the bar charts. The market can break out in EITHER direction from this formation. WHIPSAW . Is when the market rapidly reverses its direction several times in succession. WIRE . Nickname for the Copper Market Z DAY . A consolidation day that typically follows a trend day. Introduction The previous article looked at what moving averages are and how to calculate them. Artikel ini sekarang melihat bagaimana menerapkannya di Web Intelligence. Rumus yang digunakan di sini kompatibel dengan versi XIr3 dari SAP BOE namun beberapa rumus dapat bekerja di versi sebelumnya jika tersedia. Kita akan mulai dengan melihat bagaimana menghitung rata-rata bergerak sederhana sebelum melihat bentuk tertimbang dan eksponensial. Contoh Kerja Contoh di bawah ini semua menggunakan kumpulan data yang sama dengan data harga saham dalam file Excel yang dapat Anda download. Kolom pertama dalam file adalah hari harga saham dan kemudian kolom harga pembukaan, harga tertinggi pada hari itu, harga terendah, harga penutupan, volume dan harga penutupan yang disesuaikan. Kami akan menggunakan harga penutupan dalam analisis kami di bawah ini bersama dengan objek Tanggal. Simple Moving Average Ada beberapa cara untuk menghitung rata-rata bergerak sederhana. Salah satu pilihannya adalah menggunakan fungsi Previous untuk mendapatkan nilai dari baris sebelumnya. Misalnya rumus berikut ini menghitung rata-rata bergerak pada harga saham penutupan kita untuk kumpulan data rata-rata bergerak berukuran 3, Ini adalah formula yang cukup sederhana namun jelas tidak praktis bila kita memiliki sejumlah besar periode di sini yang dapat kita buat. Penggunaan rumus RunningSum dan untuk kumpulan data ukuran N yang kita miliki Akhirnya kita memiliki teknik ke-3, yang walaupun lebih rumit, mungkin memiliki kinerja yang lebih baik karena menghitung nilai baru berdasarkan nilai sebelumnya daripada dua jumlah yang berjalan selama data penuh set. Namun rumus ini hanya bekerja setelah titik ke-n dalam keseluruhan kumpulan data dan karena mengacu pada nilai sebelumnya, kita juga harus menetapkan nilai awal. Berikut adalah rumus lengkap yang digunakan untuk analisis harga saham kami dimana periode rata-rata pergerakan kami adalah 15 hari, Tanggal 1252010 adalah titik data ke-15 dalam kumpulan data kami dan oleh karena itu kami menghitung rata-rata normal menggunakan RunningSum. Untuk semua tanggal di luar nilai ini, kami menggunakan rumus SMA kami dan kami kosongkan semua tanggal sebelum tanggal ini. Gambar 1 di bawah ini adalah bagan di Web Intelligence yang menampilkan data harga saham kami dengan rata-rata bergerak sederhana. Gambar 1. Dokumen Intelijen Web yang menampilkan Moving Average Average Moving Average Rata-rata Rumus rata-rata bergerak tertimbang dengan jangka waktu 3 adalah, Seperti rumus rata-rata pergerakan sederhana pertama kami di atas ini hanya praktis untuk sejumlah kecil periode. Saya belum bisa menemukan formula sederhana yang bisa digunakan untuk periode rata-rata bergerak yang lebih besar. Secara matematis itu mungkin tapi keterbatasan dengan Web Intelligence berarti bahwa formula ini tidak dapat dikonversi. Jika ada yang mampu melakukan ini, saya akan senang mendengar Angka di bawah ini adalah WMA periode 6 yang diimplementasikan di Web Intelligence. Gambar 2. Dokumen Web Intelligence dari Moving Average Moving Average Moving Average Rata-rata pergerakan eksponensial cukup lurus ke depan untuk diterapkan di Web Intelligence dan merupakan alternatif yang sesuai untuk Weighted Moving Average. Rumus dasarnya adalah Disini kita memiliki kode keras 0.3 sebagai nilai alpha kita. Kami hanya menerapkan rumus ini untuk periode yang lebih besar dari periode kedua sehingga kami dapat menggunakan pernyataan if untuk memfilternya. Untuk periode pertama dan kedua kita bisa menggunakan nilai sebelumnya dan jadi rumus akhir untuk EMA adalah, Berikut adalah contoh EMA yang diterapkan pada data stok kita. Gambar 3. Dokumen Web Intelligence menampilkan Kontrol Masukan Rata-rata Bergerak Eksponensial Karena formula EMA kita tidak bergantung pada ukuran periode rata-rata bergerak dan satu-satunya variabel kita adalah alpha kita dapat menggunakan Input Controls untuk memungkinkan pengguna menyesuaikan nilai alpha. Untuk melakukan ini, Buat sebuah variabel baru yang disebut 8216alpha8217 dan definisikan formula itu sebagai, Update formula EMA kami, Buat kontrol masukan baru yang memilih variabel alpha kami sebagai objek laporan kontrol masukan Gunakan slider sederhana dan tetapkan properti berikut, Setelah selesai Anda Harus bisa memindahkan slider dan segera melihat perubahan pada garis tren pada grafik Kesimpulan Kami melihat bagaimana menerapkan tiga jenis rata-rata bergerak di Web Intelligence dan walaupun semua mungkin Exponential Moving Average mungkin yang termudah dan paling fleksibel. . Saya harap Anda menemukan artikel ini menarik dan karena selalu ada umpan balik yang sangat diterima. Posting navigasi Tinggalkan Balasan Batalkan balasan Anda harus masuk untuk mengirim komentar. The trick to Weighted Moving Average (WMA) is you have to create a variable which represents the numerators of WMA (see Wikipedia for reference.) This should look like the following: Previous(Self) (n Close) 8211 ( Previous(RunningSum(Close)) 8211 Previous(RunningSum(Close)n1) where n is the number of periods. Then the actual WMA8217s formula would be like this: Numerator (n (n 1) 2) where Numerator is the variable you created earlier. Current Employment Statistics Frequently Asked Questions Data Overview The establishment payroll survey, known as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, is based on a survey of approximately 147,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 634,000 worksites throughout the United States. The primary statistics derived from the survey are monthly estimates of employment, hours, and earnings for the Nation, States, and major metropolitan areas. Preliminary National estimates for a given reference month are typically releas ed on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference period in conjunction with data derived from a separate survey of households, the Current Population Survey (CPS). The reference period for the CES survey is the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. For more information about the CES survey, see the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htm . CES compared with CPS The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program is a monthly survey of business establishments (or jobs). CES produces estimates on the number of employees on nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings, average weekly earnings, and average weekly hours. The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households (or people). The household survey produces estimates about the labor force, the employed, the unemployed, the unemployment rate, and demographic information about the employed and unemployed. More information about the differences between the CPS and the CES surveys is available at bls. govwebempsitcescpstrends. pdf. For more information about the CPS survey, see the CPS homepage at bls. govcpshome. htm . CES compared with QCEW The CES and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) programs are related but do not report the exact same information at the same frequency. The QCEW program publishes a quarterly count of employment and wages covering 98 percent of U. S. jobs, available at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), State, and National levels by industry. The CES program surveys about 147,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 634,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls on a monthly basis. Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax reports, submitted by nearly all businesses in the U. S. are used as both the input data for QCEW data and as the majority of the sample frame for the CES survey and cover almost all private industries and government agencies. CES employment figures are benchmarked each year in large part using data from the QCEW program because both programs use the pay period including the 12th of the month as the reference period for employment. QCEW quarterly wages include total compensation paid during the calendar quarter to all workers CES hours and earnings data are reported for all employees and for production or nonsupervisory employees in private industry who received pay (whether they worked or not) during any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. CES earnings do not include irregular bonuses or retroactive pay. CES data are published 3 weeks after the week that includes the 12th of the month, typically the first Friday of the following month. QCEW data are published much later, approximately 6 months after the end of the reference period. More information about the differences between the QCEW, CES, and other establishment-based employment measures is available at bls. govnews. releasecewqtr. tn. htm. For additional information about the QCEW survey visit bls. govcewcewover. htm. The household survey administered by the Current Population Survey (CPS) program and establishment survey administered by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program both produce sample-based estimates of employment and both have strengths and limitations. The establishment survey employment series has a smaller margin of error on the measurement of month-to-month change than the household survey because of its much larger sample size. An over-the-month employment change of about 100,000 is statistically significant in the establishment survey, while the threshold for a statistically significant change in the household survey is about 400,000. However, the household survey has a more expansive scope than the establishment survey because it includes self-employed workers whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, agricultural workers, and private household workers, who are excluded by the establishment survey. The household survey also provides estimates of employment for demographic groups. More information about the differences between the two surveys is available at bls. govwebempsitcescpstrends. pdf. Available Data The Current Employment Statistics program administers the establishment survey and uses the data collected to produce monthly nonfarm payroll estimates. The types of data produced include the following: All employees Production or nonsupervisory employees (depending on industry) Women employees Average weekly hours Average hourly earnings (constant dollar and current dollar) Average weekly earnings Average overtime hours in manufacturing Indexes of aggregate hours and payrolls Diffusion indexes All data are available not seasonally adjusted, and some data are available seasonally adjusted. The Employment Situation report is released monthly, typically on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, which is the week that includes the 12th of the month. A table of upcoming Employment Situation release dates is available at bls. govcescestabl. htm . The BLS LABSTAT database, available at bls. govcesdata. htm. has only the latest published statistics. More information about how to access the BLS data using the data retrieval tools is available under Data Retrieval at (bls. govcescesfaq. htmDataRetrieval ). CES does not keep a separate database of first-published numbers. However, preliminary estimates for some data types for a limited level of industry detail can be obtained from archived news releases available here bls. govschedulearchivesempsitnr. htm. from the monthly online publication Employment and Earnings available here bls. govopubee. or from the monthly revision tables available here bls. govwebempsitcesnaicsrev. htm. Current Employment Statistics employment data date back to 1939 at the highest levels of aggregation. Most detailed industries only date back to 1990, and all employee hours and earnings series began in 2006. For a complete list of start dates for NAICS-based all employee series, see bls. govwebempsitcesseriespub. htm. Additionally, discontinued SIC-based employment estimates are available from 2003 going back to 1964 and in some cases as far back as 1939 or 1919. These series are not comparable with current CES NAICS-based series. To access these discontinued CES data, go to bls. govcesdata. htm. For more information about SIC coding of industries, visit bls. govcescesnaics. htm3.2.3 . Manufacturing and other goods-producing industries were the primary focus of early industry data produced by the BLS. Therefore, hours and earnings time series for these industries have a relatively long history. Data for manufacturing and its broadest industry categories begin in 1939, and for mining and construction, in 1947. Prior to 1964, however, the collection of hours and earnings data for the service-providing sector was limited to a few select industries. Given this incomplete industry coverage along with the size of the services portion of the economy, it was not possible to compute hours and earnings estimates for all of the private industries. Beginning in 1964, the collection of hours and earnings data for services was expanded to an extent sufficient to compute total private hours and earnings estimates. These estimates were first published in 1967. Discontinued SIC-based hours earnings estimates are available from 2003 going back to 1964 and in some cases as far back as 1947 or 1939. These series are not comparable with current CES NAICS-based series. To access these discontinued CES data, go to bls. govcesdata. htm. For more information about SIC coding of industries, visit bls. govcescesnaics. htm3.2.3. CES draws its sample and sets its benchmark employment level from the business establishment list maintained by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. This universe for business establishments is based on Unemployment Insurance (UI) administrative records, so workers who are not covered by UI will not be captured. In Agriculture there are numerous exemptions to requirements for UI coverage, making the sample frame for Agriculture insufficient for calculating statistically sound estimates. In addition, a substantial number of Agricultural enterprises are self-proprietorships, which are out of scope for the CES survey. Historically, the U. S. Department of Agricultures Census of Agriculture has been the primary survey used to measure farm labor. The Census of Agriculture is available at agcensus. usda. govindex. php . Some BLS data about Agricultural employment can be obtained from the QCEW (bls. govcewhome. htm ), Current Population Survey (bls. govcpshome. htm ), and Occupational Employment Statistics (bls. govoeshome. htm ) programs. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program is examining the feasibility of publishing monthly CES employment, hours, and earnings estimates by firm size. Currently, BLS publishes the first preliminary CES employment estimates for a given month at selected industry detail. Subsequent estimates for that month are published in more industry detail with the following months first estimates. Research suggests that the available sample may make it feasible to publish monthly size-class employment estimates by major industry sector together with the first preliminary estimates. Employment change by firm size would add a valuable dimension of detail to understanding current employment trends. More information about the experimental CES size class series is available at bls. govcescessizeclass. htm. Some data by size of establishment are also available from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (bls. govcewhome. htm ) program. Classification CES estimates are categorized by ownership and industry. Respondents are assigned an ownership code mdash private or public with public ownership further divided into Federal, State, or local. Respondents are then assigned a North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code. NAICS codes group establishments into industries based on the activity in which they are primarily engaged. Establishments using similar raw material inputs, similar capital equipment, and similar labor are classified in the same industry. More information about NAICS codes in general is available at bls. govblsnaics. htm. More information about NAICS codes in the CES program is available at bls. govcescesnaics. htm. CES survey respondents are categorized by Unemployment Insurance (UI) accounting code, location, ownership, size, and reporting unit. Each business has also been categorized into a certain industry by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code. Establishments are stratified by UI account number for the purpose of sample allocation and selection. The sample strata, or subpopulations, are defined by State, metropolitan statistical area, industry, and employment size, yielding a state-based design. Thirteen industries (treating manufacturing as one industry and not including government) and 8 size classes result in 104 total allocation cells per state. More information about these categories and how they are used to draw the CES sample of establishments is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection1a . After 60 years of use, CES retired the SIC system and replaced it with the NAICS. NAICS is the product of a collaborative effort between the United States (U. S.), Canada, and Mexico. A classification system shared across the three countries allows direct comparison of economic data across borders in North America. NAICS codes are not related to SIC codes rather NAICS is a completely redesigned way of coding industries. NAICS recognizes hundreds more businesses than SIC did, largely in the fast-growing service sector. The U. S. Census Bureau issued a notice, available at census. goveoswwwnaicsfederalregisternoticesnoticesfr09ap97.pdf. making NAICS effective in the U. S. in April 1997 and published the first NAICS U. S. manual in mid-1998. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not transition to the first version of NAICS, NAICS 1997. Instead, NAICS 2002 was the first version implemented by BLS, and the CES program converted from SIC to NAICS in June 2003. Reviews of NAICS are scheduled every 5 years NAICS 2012 is the most current version. More information about NAICS in the CES program is available at bls. govcescesnaics. htm. More information about the CES conversion from SIC to NAICS 2002 is available at bls. govcescesnaics02.htm . The U. S. Census Bureau reviews and updates NAICS codes every 5 years. Once these updates are available to BLS, CES converts all estimates to these revised NAICS codes. The most current version is NAICS 2012. More information about NAICS 2002, NAICS 2007, and NAICS 2012 is described and linked below. NAICS 2007 to NAICS 2012 Conversion With the release of January 2012 data on February 3, 2012, CES updated the National nonfarm payroll series to the NAICS 2012 from the NAICS 2007 basis. The conversion to NAICS 2012 resulted in minor content changes within the manufacturing and the retail trade sectors, as well as minor coding changes within the utilities and the leisure and hospitality sectors. Several industry titles and descriptions also were updated. All employee (AE) series are published at a more detailed level than all employee hours and earnings, production employee, women employee, or production employee hours and earnings series, collectively called non-AE series. The non-AE series were sometime unaffected or affected at a less-detailed level than the AE series. Further information about the NAICS 2012 conversion for both the AE and non-AE series is available at bls. govcescesnaics12.htm . The full concordance between NAICS 2007 and NAICS 2012 codes is available through the U. S. Census Bureau at census. goveoswwwnaicsconcordances2012to2007NAICS. xls . NAICS 2002 to NAICS 2007 Conversion With the release of January 2008 data on February 1, 2008, the CES national nonfarm payroll series updated to the NAICS 2007 from the NAICS 2002 basis. The conversion to NAICS 2007 resulted in minor definitional changes within manufacturing, telecommunications, financial activities, and professional and technical services. Several industry titles and descriptions also were updated. Further information about the NAICS 2007 conversion is available at bls. govcescesnaics07.htm . The full concordance between NAICS 2002 and NAICS 2007 codes is available through the U. S. Census Bureau at census. goveoswwwnaicsconcordances2007to2002NAICS. xls . SIC 1987 to NAICS 2002 Conversion With the release of May 2003 data on June 6, 2003, the CES national nonfarm payroll series underwent a number of changes. The basis for industry classification changed from the SIC 1987 to the NAICS 2002. NAICS replaced the SIC system. The CES survey published national data on a NAICS 2002 basis with the release of May 2003 data on June 6, 2003. SIC-based data is no longer produced or published it is still be available but not updated past April 2003. Further information about the NAICS 2002 conversion is available at bls. govcescesnaics02.htm . The full concordance between SIC and NAICS 2002 codes is available through the U. S. Census Bureau at census. goveoswwwnaicsconcordances2002NAICSto1987SIC. xls . Data Retrieval CES data are published monthly, but are also available as historical time series. The data are available as part of a monthly news release, as a searchable database, and in text format. The table below lists the ways to download CES data from bls. govceshome. htm. More information about retrieving CES data is available at bls. govwebempsitcestips. htm. Archived editions of Employment and Earnings Online are available from April 2007 forward here: bls. govopubeearchive. htm. Earlier back issues are kept at federal depository libraries. To join the BLS e-mail subscription service that provides excerpts from and links to The Employment Situation, Real Earnings, and other BLS news releases of interest, visit the BLS News Service Subscription E-mail page, available at subscriptions. bls. govaccountsUSDOLBLSsubscribernew. CES Data Retrieval Options BLS requires that all published Current Employment Statistics (CES) estimates meet strict quality and privacy guidelines. These guidelines are designed to ensure that there is adequate sample to produce statistically sound estimates and protect the confidentiality of our survey respondents. CES estimates are subject to annual review to determine if they meet BLS publication and disclosure standards. Failure to meet the standards may stem from inadequate sample size, inadequate sample response rates, or dominance of the sample by a few reporters. A list of the most recent changes to published CES series is available at bls. govwebempsitcesnewseries. htm. and a complete list of currently published CES series is available at bls. govwebempsitcesseriespub. htm. The mission of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is to collect, process, analyze, and disseminate essential statistical data to the American public, the U. S. Congress, other federal agencies, state and local governments, business, and labor. In order to maintain credibility and trust with our survey respondents, confidentiality protections for our data are essential. Protecting the confidentiality of data is central to accomplishing the BLS mission. When collecting data, the BLS makes a pledge of confidentiality to its respondents. This pledge varies depending on the context of each survey, but the standard BLS confidentiality pledge promises that data collected are used for statistical purposes only. Information about the BLS confidentiality policy and the laws that protect reporters to BLS surveys can be found here: bls. govblsconfidentiality. htm. Researchers can get access to BLS microdata under certain circumstances. Information about qualifying for the program and the application process through which access may be granted can be found here: bls. govblsblsresda. htm. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey collects earnings data for private nonfarm business establishments, excluding government. To calculate the real earnings series, these nominal dollar earnings estimates for all employees (AE) back to 2006 and for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) starting as early as 1964 (depending on the industry) are adjusted for inflation using 1982-1984 dollars. The data are available on our website at bls. govcesdata. htm. Click on quotCES Data Access Tipsquot for further instructions. CES does not collect or publish government hours or earnings data. Government earnings data are available from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. QCEW provides annual, quarterly, and weekly wage data for various private and government industries based on Unemployment Insurance tax reports. QCEW wage information can be found at bls. govcewhome. htm. CPI price index information can be found at bls. govcpihome. htm. The BLS does not publish average payroll frequency of establishments. However, the CES survey does adjust for different payroll frequencies which can affect seasonally adjusted hours and earnings estimates. More information about CES seasonal adjustment methodology can be found at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection5. Survey Methods The Sample The Current Employment Statistics (CES) sample is a stratified, simple random sample of worksites, clustered by Unemployment Insurance (UI) account number. The UI account number is a major identifier on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Longitudinal Database (LDB) of employer records, which serves as both the sampling frame and the benchmark source for the CES employment estimates. The sample strata, or subpopulations, are defined by state, industry, and employment size, yielding a state-based design. The sampling rates for each stratum are determined through a method known as optimum allocation, which distributes a fixed number of sample units across a set of strata to minimize the overall variance, or sampling error, on the primary estimate of interest. The total nonfarm employment level is the primary estimate of interest, and the CES sample design gives top priority to measuring it as precisely as possible, or minimizing the statistical error around the national total nonfarm employment estimates. Information about the current CES sample can be found in the CES Technical Notes available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection1. The establishment survey, like other sample surveys, is subject to two types of error, sampling and nonsampling error. The magnitude of sampling error, or variance, is directly related to the size of the sample and the percentage of universe coverage achieved by the sample. The establishment survey sample covers over one-third of total universe employment this yields a very small variance on the total nonfarm estimates. More information about error in the CES survey and measurements of the error associated with sample estimates are available in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection1c. Yes, about 42 percent of the establishment survey sample is composed of business establishments with fewer than 20 employees. The establishment survey sample is designed to maximize the reliability of the total nonfarm employment estimates for each State firms from all size classes and industries are appropriately sampled to achieve this goal. Sample data are weighted to represent other establishments in the same state, industry, and size class. More information about the sampling methods used for the CES survey is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection1a . The CES government sample is not part of the probability-based survey design. CES is able to achieve a very high percent of universe employment coverage (74 percent) by obtaining full payroll employment counts for many government agencies, thus a probability-based sample design is not necessary for government. The high coverage rate virtually assures a high degree of reliability for the government employment estimates. The large government sample does not bias the total nonfarm employment estimates because it is used to estimate only the government portion of total nonfarm employment. The probability sample is used to estimate employment for all industries in the private sector. Total private and government estimates are summed to derive total nonfarm employment estimates. More information about coverage levels of both private and government employment in the CES sample is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection1b . Data Collection Each month, BLS collects data on employment, payroll, and paid hours from a sample of establishments. To encourage participation in this voluntary survey, BLS uses a variety of collection techniques, tailored to individual firm preferences. Data collection centers perform initial enrollment of each firm via telephone, collect the data for several months via Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI), and where possible transfer respondents to a self-reporting mode such as touch-tone data entry, fax, or web collection. Very large, multi-establishment firms ongoing reporting is established via Electronic Data Interchange (EDI). Firms using EDI provide electronic files to BLS that include data from all their worksites. More information about CES data collection is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection2 . CES tracks collection rates for the CES sample on a monthly basis for each release of estimates. Collection rates are the percent of reports received for a monthly estimate compared to the total number of actively-reporting sample units on the sample registry. More information about registry receipts is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6 . More information about CES data collection rates is available at bls. govwebempsitcesregrec. htm . Estimation Methods The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program uses a matched sample concept and weighted link relative estimator to produce employment, hours, and earnings estimates. A matched sample is defined to be all sample members that have reported data for the reference month and the month prior. Excluded from the matched sample is any sample unit that reports that it has zero employees in the current or previous month. More information about CES monthly estimation is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection5a . Links to the equations for the calculation of CES monthly estimation of employment, hours, and earnings are listed in the table below. CES Equations for the Estimation of Employment, Hours, and Earnings Employment Concepts CES employment is an estimate of the number of nonfarm, payroll jobs in the U. S. economy. Employment is the total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full - or part-time who received pay (whether they worked or not) for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Temporary and intermittent employees are included, as are any employees who are on paid sick leave, on paid holiday, or who work during only part of the specified pay period. A striking employee who only works a small portion of the survey period, and is paid, would be included as employed under the CES definitions. Persons on the payroll of more than one establishment are counted in each establishment. Data exclude proprietors, self-employed, unpaid family or volunteer workers, farm workers, and household workers. Persons on layoff the entire pay period, on leave without pay, on strike for the entire period, or who have a pending job but have not yet reported for work are not counted as employed. Government employment covers only civilian employees it excludes uniformed members of the armed services. For more information about CES employment, see the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection4a . The definition of employment in the Current Population Survey (the household survey) is available at bls. govcpsfaq. htmQues4 . CES draws the survey sample from roughly 9.7 million U. S. business establishments covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax system representing 97 percent of all employment within the scope of CES in the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U. S. Virgin Islands. Excluded from the CES scope, although they are included in the list of establishments covered by UI taxes, are private households and agricultural businesses. The remaining 3 percent of establishments included in the CES scope that are not covered by UI laws are students paid by their school as part of a work study program, interns of hospitals paid by the hospital for which they work, employees paid by state and local government and elected officials, independent or contract insurance agents, employees of non-profits and religious organizations (this is the largest group of employees not covered), and railroad employees covered under a different system of UI administered by the Railroad Retirement Board (RRB). More information about noncovered employment and the methodology used to include this employment in the CES estimates can be found in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmNCE . The CES data also exclude proprietors, the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family employees, farm employees, and domestic employees. Government employment covers only civilian employees military personnel are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded. The production and nonsupervisory employee groups vary by industry. In service-providing industries, these data are collected for nonsupervisory employees mdash those who are not owners or who are not primarily employed to direct, supervise, or plan the work of others. In goods-producing industries, the data are collected for production employees in mining and logging and in manufacturing, and for construction employees in construction. Production and construction employees include working supervisors or group leaders who may be in charge of some employees, but whose supervisory functions are only incidental to their regular work. The production employeeconstruction employee categories in goods-producing industries exclude employees not directly involved in production, such as managers, sales, or accounting personnel. More information about which employees are included or not included in the definitions of all employees and production and nonsupervisory employees is available on the CES report forms at bls. govcesidcfcesforms. htm. or in the CES Technical Notes, available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection4a . Yes, the CES survey captures counts of all employees on the payroll, including part-time employees. However, part-time employees are not counted separately from full-time employees, so CES data does not include separate estimates of part - and full-time employment. The Current Population Survey (CPS) does have a separate estimate of part-time employees. More information about CPS collection of full - and part-time employment is available at bls. govcpslfcharacteristics. htmfullpart . It is likely that the CES survey includes at least some undocumented immigrants. However, the establishment survey is not designed to identify the legal status of workers. Therefore, it is not possible to determine how many are counted in the survey. The Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey, does include questions which identify the foreign and native born employees, but it does not include questions about the legal status of the foreign born employees. More information about foreign born employees in the CPS survey is available at bls. govcpsdemographics. htmforeignborn . BLS is unable to quantify the impact of reservists being called to active duty in CES employment figures. In concept, persons on active military duty for the entire survey reference period are not included on employer payrolls. Some reservists hold jobs not covered by the payroll survey mdash such as the self-employed or those in agriculture mdash and others may not hold jobs at all. Any reservist who worked for or received pay from their regular employer during the survey reference period is counted on the employers payroll. If reservists are replaced by new employees on an employers payroll during the pay period including the 12th of the month, there is no net change in the number of jobs counted. If reservists are not replaced, a net decline in the employers job count results. If a reservist and a replacement employee for the reservist each worked at any time during the same reference pay period, they are counted as two employees. Government employment includes only civilian employees. Military personnel on active duty are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded. Establishments report the number of persons on payroll during the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. A person working multiple jobs at different establishments is counted once at each establishment. A person working different jobs at the same business establishment is counted once. Unusually severe weather, natural disasters, government shutdowns, and other catastrophic events are more likely to have an impact on CES estimates of average weekly hours than on employment. In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Average weekly hours are estimated for paid time during the pay period, including pay for holidays, sick leave, or other time off. Any event in which employees are prevented from working a normal schedule typically results in a reduction in average weekly hours. For example, some employees may be off work for part of the pay period and not receive pay for the time missed, while some workers, such as those dealing with cleanup or repair, may work extra hours. In order for catastrophic events to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be out of work without pay for the entire pay period. About two-thirds of all employees in the payroll survey have a 2-week, semi-monthly, or monthly pay period. Employees who receive pay for any part of the pay period, even 1 hour, are counted in the payroll employment figures. Because the hours that employees work can be impacted by these special circumstances, but those employees might still be counted as employed by an establishment if they were paid for work done during a portion of the pay period, it is not possible to quantify the effect of catastrophic events on estimates of employment from the establishment survey. In addition to their direct impact, these events sometimes have secondary effects. When the magnitude of significant secondary effects are known these secondary effects are discussed in the monthly Employment Situation news release and other BLS publications. BLS independently develops a national employment series state estimates are not forced to sum to national totals. Because each state series is subject to larger sampling and nonsampling errors than the national series, summing them cumulates individual state level errors and can cause distortions at an aggregate level. Due to these statistical limitations, BLS does not compile a quotsum-of-statesquot employment series, and cautions users that such a series is subject to a volatile error structure. More information about the differences in state and national CES estimates is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection4e . Hours and Earnings Concepts The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces earnings, but not wage data. CES average earnings are a measure of gross payrolls divided by total hours paid during the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Averages of hourly earnings differ from wage rates. Earnings are the return to an employee for a stated period on average in an industry rates are the amount stipulated for a given unit of work or time in a specific job. Average hourly earnings do not represent employers total compensation costs because they exclude items such as employee benefits, irregular bonuses and commissions, retroactive payments, and the employers share of payroll taxes. A more comprehensive explanation is available at bls. govopubhomhomch2.htm. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program produces wages by industry, available at bls. govcewhome. htm. The Occupational Employment Survey produces wages by occupation (instead of industry), available at bls. govoeshome. htm. Yes, employers report total gross pay earned during the entire pay period, including overtime pay but excluding irregular payments, and the total number of hours for which employees received pay during the entire pay period including overtime. Overtime hours are published for manufacturing industries only. Respondents in manufacturing report the total number of hours for which employees received overtime premiums because they worked more than their regularly scheduled hours. BLS recommends that CES earnings series not be used in contract escalation clauses. Instead, BLS recommends that you use the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which measures changes in labor costs free from the influence of employment shifts among industries and occupations. For help on how to use the ECI for contract adjustments, visit bls. govncsectescalator. htm. BirthDeath The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total employment level because each month new firms generate employment that cannot be captured through the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between a firm opening for business and its appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from Unemployment Insurance (UI) quarterly tax records. These records cover virtually all U. S. employers and include business births, but they only become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7-9 months after the reference month. After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and soliciting cooperation from the firm, and verifying the initial data provided. In practice, CES cannot sample and begin to collect data from new firms until they are at least a year old. There is a parallel though somewhat different issue in capturing employment loss from business deaths through monthly sample collection. Businesses that have closed are unlikely to respond to the survey, and data collectors may not be able to ascertain until after the monthly collection period that firms have in fact gone out of business. As with business births, hard information about business deaths eventually becomes available from the lagged UI tax records. Difficulty in capturing information from business birth and death units is not unique to the CES virtually all current business surveys face these limitations. Unlike many surveys, CES adjusts for these limitations explicitly, using a statistical modeling technique. Because the goal of the CES program is to estimate an employment total each month and business births and deaths are important components contributing to these totals, CES uses a model-based adjustment in conjunction with the sample. Without the net birthdeath model-based adjustment, the CES nonfarm payroll employment estimates would be considerably less accurate. More information about the CES net birthdeath model is available in the CES BirthDeath Frequently Asked Questions bls. govwebempsitcesbdqa. htm or in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection5c. Current net birthdeath contributions to the CES employment estimates are available at bls. govwebempsitcesbd. htm. Seasonal Adjustment Most series published by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program show a regularly recurring seasonal movement that can be measured from past experience. By eliminating that part of the change attributable to the normal seasonal variation, it is possible to observe the cyclical and other nonseasonal movements in these series. Seasonal adjustment is the process by which these normal seasonal patterns are removed from the estimates leaving behind only non-seasonal trends and irregular movements. Seasonally adjusted estimates of employment and other series are generated using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program developed by the United States Census Bureau. This program adjusts estimates for fluctuations that occur on a regular basis within a year. For example, employment in retail trade rises prior to the Christmas holiday season and then falls following the holiday. This holiday change in retail trade is seasonal and is removed by seasonally adjusting the series. Seasonally adjusted series are published monthly for selected employment, hours, and earnings estimates. More information about seasonal adjustment in the CES program is available at bls. govwebempsitcesseasadj. htm. BLS published employment on a seasonally adjusted basis beginning in April 1955. Before this period, the Federal Reserve seasonally adjusted CES employment those series are available on the St. Louis FED website at research. stlouisfed. orgfred2categories11. Hours and earnings were first seasonally adjusted by CES in July 1960. The 45 week adjustment used in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) programs seasonal adjustment procedures adjusts for inconsistencies in the CES series that arise because of variations of 4 or 5 weeks between reference periods in any given pair of months. In highly seasonal months and industries, this variation can be an important determinant of the magnitude of seasonal hires or layoffs that have occurred at the time the survey is taken, thereby complicating seasonal adjustment. The CES program first incorporated a 45 week adjustment with the release of May 1996 data. At that time, historical estimates were revised for the 45 week differences back to January 1986. Furthermore, historical data was again re-seasonally adjusted using the 45 week adjustment back to January 1986 when CES switched from SIC-based industry definitions to NAICS-based industry definitions in 2003. A research paper discussing these 4 to 5 week inconsistencies in the CES estimates called Adjusting for a Calendar Effect in Employment Time Series (1996) is available at bls. govorepdfst960190.pdf. More information about the CES seasonal adjustment process and special model adjustments such as the 4 to 5 week calendar effect are available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection5e. Other CES Estimation Concepts The CES Small Domain Model (SDM) is used for national and state estimation of a small number of series with sampling limitations. The CES SDM is a weighted least squares model with two employment inputs: an estimate based on available CES sample for that series, and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) projection based on trend from ten years of historical QCEW data. These two over-the-month change estimates are then weighted based on the variance of each of the estimates. More information about the CES SDM including which series are estimated using the SDM is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection5e. More information about the QCEW program is available at bls. govcewhome. htm . The shipyard index tracks the relative change in the dollar amount of average hourly earnings over a given period of time for certain shipyards contracted to do work for the Navy. In calculating the index, each yards current straight-time hourly earnings are weighted according to its share of aggregate hours for all yards over the past 12 months. Then, this current weighted earnings measure is compared with the equivalent weighted earnings measure for a given base period (May 1987 for the index that includes lump sum payments and September 1980 for the one that does not). The index is scaled so that the base value equals 100. The values for the other months are expressed as a percentage of the base value. For the purposes of the CES shipyard index, a lump-sum payment is defined as a payment made to all production workers in lieu of all or part of a wage increase no other lump-sum bonuses are included. When a payment is reported, it is prorated forward based on the number of weeks in each month of the lump-sum period. The ship building indices are available at bls. govcescesship. htm. Monthly Revisions CES revises published estimates to improve its data series by incorporating additional information that was not available at the time of the initial publication of the estimates. CES revises its initial monthly estimates twice, in the immediately succeeding 2 months, to incorporate additional sample receipts from respondents in the survey. More information about the monthly revisions is available at bls. govcescesrevinfo. htm. On an annual basis, CES incorporates a benchmark revision that reanchors estimates to nearly complete employment counts available from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, County Business Pattern data, and other state-collected data. The benchmark helps to control for sampling error in the estimates. More information about the annual benchmark revision is available at bls. govwebempsitcesbmart. htm. All versions of the estimates through the month preceding the most recent benchmark are available at bls. govwebempsitcesvininfo. htm . It can be nearly 2 years before not seasonally adjusted Current Employment Statistics (CES) estimates are considered final. CES first preliminary estimates of employment, hours, and earnings are published each month approximately 3 weeks after the reference period. Estimates are then revised twice before being held constant until the annual benchmark release. Second preliminary estimates for a given month are published the month following the initial release, and final sample-based estimates are published 2 months after the initial release. The annual benchmark revisions affect nearly 2 years of data, so most months are subject to revisions during 2 separate benchmark periods. Seasonally adjusted CES estimates are generally subject to revisions for 5 years after their initial publication. Current Employment Statistics (CES) first preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of employment, hours, and earnings are published each month approximately 3 weeks after the reference period. Estimates are then revised twice before being held constant until the annual benchmark release. Second preliminary estimates for a given month are published the month following the initial release, and final sample-based estimates are published 2 months after the initial release. Once a year with the benchmark release, 5 years of seasonally adjusted CES estimates are re-seasonally adjusted. For most series, CES uses 10 years of not seasonally adjusted data as an input to seasonal adjustment. However, the all employee hours and earnings series begins in 2006. Until CES has a full 10 years of input data for the AE hours and earnings series, CES will use the entire history of the not seasonally adjusted series as inputs and replace the entire history of the seasonally adjusted data. Continuing these updates until all years have been adjusted using a full 10 years of input data ensures that all data are adjusted using the same methodology. Further revisions may occur after the final estimates have been produced due to changes in scope, NAICS revisions, data errors, or other circumstances that require the reconstruction of historical CES estimates. More information about the monthly revisions is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6a. More information about the benchmark revisions is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6b . Benchmarking The benchmark adjustment, a standard part of the CES survey estimation process, is a once-a-year re-anchoring of the sample-based employment estimates to full population counts available principally through Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax records filed by employers with State labor market information agencies. The difference between the March population counts and the March sample-based employment estimates is referred to as the benchmark revision. A preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision is published in late September, and the final benchmark revision, affecting 21 months of previously published data and anchored to March of the previous year, is published with the January preliminary estimates in early February. More information about the CES benchmarking process is available at bls. govwebempsitcesbmart. htm. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program maintains a quarterly tabulation from administrative records of the number of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI) laws, including Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE). UI universe counts, available on a lagged basis, contain individual employer records for approximately 9.7 million establishments and cover nearly 97 percent of total nonfarm employment these records provide most of the benchmark levels for the sample-based estimates. For the small segment of the population not covered by UI, BLS develops employment benchmarks from several alternative sources, primarily records from the Railroad Retirement Board and County Business Patterns. More information about CES benchmark revisions are available in the Benchmark Article at bls. govwebempsitcesbmart. htm or in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6b. How do the benchmark revisions affect months prior to the benchmark month in the CES surveyFollowing standard BLS methodology for national estimates, the March UI-based benchmark employment level replaces the March sample-based employment estimate, and the estimates for the 11 months prior to the benchmark month are adjusted using a wedge procedure. In this process, the difference, or error, between the benchmark level and the previously published March estimate for each estimating cell is computed. This difference is linearly distributed across the 11 months of estimates subsequent to the previous benchmark. For example, the benchmark revision that was released in February 2017 replaced the March 2016 estimate with the benchmark level, decreasing the employment level for that month by 81,000. To wedge this adjustment over the prior year, 112 of the difference was added to April 2015, 212s to May and so forth, through February 2016 which received 1112s of the difference. Employment for March 2015 had been set to a benchmark amount in the prior year and was not revised with the March 2016 benchmark. The wedge procedure assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. Employment benchmarks are applied to not seasonally adjusted estimates. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, 5 years of historical data may revise, because new models for seasonal adjustment are selected and seasonal factors based on the new models are updated with each years benchmark release. CES benchmark revisions only affect April of the previous year to October of the benchmark year and do not affect changes to earlier employment levels. However, earlier months of employment history are subject to change due to reconstructions to CES series. Reconstructions can result in revisions to both the not seasonally adjusted data and the seasonally adjusted data at both the detailed and aggregate levels. For information about benchmarks and potential revisions with this years benchmark, see bls. govwebempsitcesbmart. htm. More information about benchmarking is available in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6b. How do the benchmark revisions affect months after the benchmark month in the CES surveyEstimates for the period after the benchmark is applied, called the post-benchmark period, are calculated for each month by applying previously derived over-the-month sample change ratios to the revised March levels. New net birthdeath model estimates also are calculated and included in post-benchmark estimation. Additionally, new sample from the annual sample update is introduced starting with the third release of estimates for November following the benchmark month. Employment benchmarks, including the post-benchmark period, are applied to not seasonally adjusted estimates. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, 5 years of historical data may revise, because new models for seasonal adjustment are selected and seasonal factors based on the new models are updated with each years benchmark release. More information about benchmarking is available in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6b. Respondents To begin reporting your CES data or if you have any questions while reporting, please contact the CES Help Desk or call 1-800-827-2005. Include your CES report number(s) in your request or have them available when you call. More information for CES respondents is available at bls. govrespondentsceshome. htm . Each month the CES program surveys about 147,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 634,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of employees on nonfarm payrolls. Input to this survey is greatly appreciated. In most states the CES survey is voluntary. However, it is required by state law in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Oregon. Information about these requirements, including documentation of the applicable legal code, is available on the first page of the report forms. Electronic copies of the report forms for each industry are available at bls. govcesidcfcesforms. htm. More information for CES respondents is available at bls. govrespondentsceshome. htm . Last Modified Date: February 3, 2017 Recommend this page using: Facebook Twitter LinkedIn